With the Hearthstone 2020 World Championship tournament this weekend, I'll be taking a look at how I predict some of the matches will go based on the lineups brought by the competitors, as well as give my thoughts about the resurgence of Highlander Hunter. With 760 games of various HL Hunter builds played since just September 17th until now, December 11th, and many more throughout HL Hunter's existence, so many of the competitors bringing their own variations of the deck is fascinating to me.
First, let's take a quick look at the breakdown of the decks brought by the competitors.
Group A
Glory: Ashtongue/Silas OTK Control Warrior, Soul Demon Hunter, Secret Rogue, Broom Paladin
Jarla: Control Priest, OTK/Lifesteal Demon Hunter, ETC Warrior, Broom Paladin
BloodyFace: Evolve Shaman, Soul Demon Hunter, Highlander Hunter, Broom Paladin
XiaoT: Aggro Demon Hunter, Evolve Shaman, Bomb Warrior, Highlander Rogue
Group B
iG.Syf: Highlander Hunter, Aggro Demon Hunter, Bomb Warrior, Evolve Shaman
Bankyugi: Highlander Hunter, Highlander Priest, Evolve Shaman, Bomb Warrior
SilverName: Evolve Shaman, Bomb Warrior, Aggro Demon Hunter, Highlander Hunter
Monsanto: Enrage Warrior, Soul Demon Hunter, Secret Rogue, Highlander Hunter
Overall, it seems that this tournament meta is fairly aggressive, with many Demon Hunters, Shamans, Highlander Hunters, and even the few Rogues that are represented. A few general thoughts when I look at these lineups are because of the general aggressive nature of most of the lineups, the Highlander Hunters may have a slightly harder time and therefore do a bit worse overall, BUT many of these Highlander Hunter lists are fairly low-curve themselves, and will likely be able to keep up or even over-throw the aggro decks in the long run. It also seems that many of the players that brought highlander decks also brought the seemingly “counter” deck of Bomb Warrior.
The downside here for the players that brought Bomb Warrior decks is that even though bombs creating duplicates into a Highlander deck is suppose to be beneficial, Highlander Hunter generally puts out too much damage with the deck, regardless of Zephrys or Brann being used, that many times the bombs simply don't do enough to stop the large amount of damage being done by the Hunter. Another key thing I've noted with the Bomb Warrior decks is that the lists have cut the Risky Skipper/Armorsmith packages for other board removal, such as Minefield. Although this may help in some cases, especially very early game, the lack of additional armor gain may only hinder the Bomb Warriors even further against the damage output from the Hunter hero power and weapons. I also believe the Bomb Warriors will suffer to the big swing turns of both Aggro Demon Hunters and the Evolve Shamans. Overall, I am going to predict that the general meta presented from these eight players will cause Bomb Warrior to be one of the lowest performing decks over the weekend.
I think Monsanto's Enrage Warrior is in a very interesting spot with this tournament meta, because Enrage Warrior has some fair to good match-ups against Demon Hunters (fair vs Soul, very good vs Aggro and the Combo OTK versions), Highlander Hunter, and Secret Rogue, but will likely struggle against the other Warriors and the Broom Paladins. It seems likely that Monsanto will either get his Warrior banned or if left un-banned, should be able to secure some wins with the deck.
I want to also mention that Glory and Jarla both brought much slower, more control-centric lineups than the rest of the field, and I think overall their lineups seem likely favored in the tournament as a whole, however, they are not only in the same group, but also are facing into each other the first match. This makes their lineup more difficult on them, especially whomever loses that first match, because they will then have to play through an additional series to make it past the group, rather than getting to play against lineups that they seem to be targeting.
At the start of the article, I mentioned my knowledge of Highlander Hunter, and want to discuss a few of the differences between the various lists and how I think they will make a difference. Two of the players (BloodyFace and Bankyugi) brought Trampling Rhino in their lists, an inclusion I've been running the last week or two myself on ladder, and has felt like a very solid inclusion. Even at five mana, it doesn't feel like it disrupts the Lorekeeper Polkelt synergies like first imagined. Playing Polkelt on turn four draws Brann on turn 5 and then Rhino on 6, which IS off curve, but often still feels like a powerful play, and against decks with smaller minions, can become a minion clear AND a bit of face damage at the same time, something Hunter is very happy to do.
Bankyugi also has an interesting list in that it is NOT running a copy of Tour Guide, one of the cards that is highly regarded as an auto-include when playing cards such as Sharpshooter, Phase Stalker, and Dragonbane. In my experience, Tour Guide either comes in during the first half of the game and creates a great amount of tempo/value, or gets buried in the bottom of the deck after Polkelt gets played. This might cause a bit of a delay in Bankyugi's game plan, especially in the mirror match or vs other aggressive decks.
A few other interesting choices are the exclusion of Unleash the Hounds in iG.Syf's list, especially considering the amount of other aggressive decks that want to go wide on the board, and BloodyFace including a Secret Keeper, Sneaky Delinquent, and a Tracking in her list. My playtesting of iG.Syf's list (after the lists became public) had me feeling very successful and I did not even seem to miss or need the Unleash the Hounds. On the other hand, the Secret Keeper that BloodyFace included felt a bit lacking, and really only seemed powerful if found early along with secrets to play, but much of the value from the deck comes from pulling the secrets into play via Phase Stalker or Inconspicuous Rider, rather than playing them from hand. Also interestingly, BloodyFace is only running three secrets in her list, so there are also less secrets to play with the Secret Keeper, but an earlier minion that opponents would have to consider a possible threat is nothing to scoff at, either.
Speaking of the secrets, that is the last thing I wanted to discuss, because many of the players brought different secrets in their lists. Every Highlander Hunter list is running Freezing Trap, Pack Tactics, and Snake Trap (BloodyFace, Bankyugi, and Monsanto are only running those three). SilverName added an Open the Cages to his list, being the only player to include it, and iG.Syf included a Pressure Plate to his, and is the only player running a Pressure Plate. Many players, even on ladder, have started to cut their copies of Open the Cages, so I am not surprised to see most of the lists not include it. Open the Cages is one of the easiest secrets to play around and prevent, especially when included in the list of an open decklist format, and with so many other aggressive and board-centric decks being represented, I think the Open the Cages may become a bit of a liability for SilverName, unless he ends up ahead on board, in which case, he likely will already be winning that game. In terms of Pressure Plate, it has seemed more viable versus decks such as Paladin or Druid, but in my experience has started to feel a bit lacking in the meta due to the counter-play of Pen Flinger, minion-generating hero powers, and more wide-board, smaller minion boards with a few less spells in the deck, or the aggressive decks being able to attack with the small minions, and then trigger the Pressure Plate for very minimal impact. However, looking at the exclusion of Unleash the Hounds, and the inclusion of Pressure Plate by iG.Syf, it seems to me that he may have expected more Paladin or decks that create fewer, larger minions on board, rather than an aggressive meta.
The very last point about the secrets and secret-related cards have to do with playing versus Soul Demon Hunter. In my experience in the Soul DH match-up, it may be correct to actually not keep secret related cards, but rather try to find more early game minions, weapons, Polkelt, and direct damage. With so many of the minions, including the minions generated from Pack Tactics, Snake Trap, and Petting Zoo all having three or less health, the Highlander Hunter's board is extremely bad against the removal options in Soul DH. However, only three of the players brought Soul DH, so it is not as impactful as I would have expected prior to the decklists being revealed.
All-in-all, I think Bomb Warrior will struggle more than expected during the weekend, and I expect the few control-centric lineups to perform well. I also imagine that Demon Hunter will have a fairly high ban rate, and I am not expecting the few weapon removal inclusions to be as impactful as intended, especially with the inclusions of Hoard Pillager (mostly in Evolve Shaman).
I hope you enjoyed this article, my break-down and analysis, and the 2020 World Championship tournament as well!